The King Charles Bridge spans the Nene Channel, linking the countries of Northland and Southland. Almost as soon as it opened in July 2000, HGV traffic began to use the bridge. In many ways, this was not a desired effect, as the bridge was competing with more sustainable (but slower) forms of transport such as ferries.
Soon, seasonal volumes of leisure traffic began to use the bridge as well. These vehicles, typically caravans, motor homes and other cars with trailers, are taller than typical commuting traffic and need to access the bridge through the same ramps that the HGVs use (“High Bay Access Points”). Given the need to check multiple passengers’ passports, leisure traffic slows freight flow through the bridge toll station at peak times.Delays tend to occur when the number of high bay vehicles exceeds 100k per month. Tempers can fray, and time is money for the freight operators.
A recent fall in the value of the Northland Crown has made the country even more attractive to tourists. The bridge operating company, KCB plc, is therefore considering whether additional high bay lanes need to be built in the toll station to separate the HGV and tourist traffic.
The Assessment Task
You are to use the supplied historic data to develop forecasts that can inform KCB’s decision whether and when to add additional high bay capacity to the toll station.
1. Plot the historic data and provide an estimate of seasonality of the leisure traffic.
2. Provide a forecast of the expected traffic up to the end of 2025, based on the complete data set you have been given. Create a suitable chart to visualise the data.
3. Provide a forecast of the expected traffic up to the end of 2025, based solely on data recorded after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020. Create a suitable chart to visualise the data.
4. Discuss the similarity and differences between the two forecasts.
5. What advice would you offer KCB regarding the decision to invest in additional capacity?
Note that there is no expectation that you will use specialist software to undertake this assignment. No additional credit will be given for doing so. Microsoft Excel is quite sufficient.
Show your working; simple, auditable steps are preferred to the use of complex models.
The maximum permitted word count for this assignment is 1800 +/- 10%. Tables, figures and references are not included in the word count.
Learning Outcomes
On successful completion of this assessment, you will be able to:
c) Critically discuss the managerial relevance of topics in business operations and supply management, analysing their benefits and implementation challenges to organisations and their supply chains.
d) Apply managerial concepts, theoretical frameworks and approaches to solve specific operations and supply chain problems in a range of business case scenarios, including related implementation challenges.
f) Produce and justify appropriate informed decisions in the context by elaborating pros and cons arguments concerning application of relevant concepts and managerial frameworks.
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